Anthropic's listing plans waver as AI selloff cuts expected valuation

Expectations for Anthropic's initial public offering have been marked down again, with potential investors now discussing a valuation of $1.2tn to $1.3tn and one considering as little as $1.1tn, according to people cited in Bloomberg-sourced reports. The retreat matters beyond a single company: Anthropic would be the first developer of frontier AI models to list, making its pricing the most direct public-market verdict yet on the valuations attached to AI firms and, by extension, to the cloud, chip and data-centre suppliers that depend on their spending.

The proximate cause is a selloff. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% on Thursday, erasing about $2.3tn in market value, a record for a single session, while CNBC put the broader Nasdaq's decline at more than 5%, its steepest in 19 months. Investors connected the move to the US midterm elections, after which Democratic gains raised the prospect of closer scrutiny of data-centre expansion, and voters in several states approved measures restricting it. The Cboe volatility index rose on Thursday to its highest level since April 2025. Expectations had already slipped before that: investors had told the banks running the deal that a fair valuation was $1.4tn to $1.5tn, down from as much as $2tn in early October, after the company presented its latest financial data.

Timing is now in question. The roadshow had been expected to begin in the week of 9 November, with pricing the following week, while the Wall Street Journal reported a listing targeted for the week of 16 November that could raise up to $100bn. Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson told CNBC that investors "will expect the IPO to be priced at least at the low end of previous expectations". Stephan Kemper of BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany said he would expect a valuation 10% to 15% below the $1.5tn-to-$2tn range discussed in the market, and Max Kettner of HSBC argued that about $1tn might be more comfortable. The company's annualised revenue run rate exceeded $80bn at the end of October, according to a person familiar with figures cited by the Journal, and it held roughly $146.6bn in cash at 30 September; it was privately valued at $965bn in May.

Bankers and investors are weighing a smaller transaction, with one prospective investor suggesting the raise could fall from $100bn to about $80bn, or a postponement until market conditions improve. Cerebras Systems and Figma both raised more than initially marketed and now trade below their offer prices, a precedent cited in the coverage. The next factual markers are Anthropic's October revenue figures, awaited by investors, and whether the roadshow opens as scheduled.